According to a forecast published by Morgan Stanley, if travel restrictions remain in place across Asia for the foreseeable future, casinos in Macau may be able to regain 20% of the APAC revenue that had been lost to neighboring regions by the year 2022. It is likely that mass-market table and slot suppliers in the Special Administrative Region will gain from the "onshoring" of Chinese gaming consumers. According to estimates provided by Morgan Stanley, land-based gross gaming revenue in APAC (not including Macau) reached $10.3 billion in 2019, and if there is a general market rebound over the course of the next 12 months, similar levels might be achieved again in 2022.
Should travel restrictions continue to exist in any form, however, Macau may claim up to $2 billion of this earnings, since Chinese gamblers would be obliged to visit resorts within their own country rather than those located outside of their own country's boundaries.
Morgan Stanley analysts Praveen Choudhary, Thomas Allen, and Gareth Leung made the following observation: "According to our estimate, 20 percent of total Asia (excluding Macau) mass revenue could come back to Macau by the year 2022."
We anticipate that a portion of this business will relocate to Macau as a result of the increased travel restrictions.
Recouping lost revenue of this kind would only serve to bolster Macau's already dominant position in the Asia-Pacific market. The analysis by Morgan Stanley estimates that the region had approximately 66% of the total gross gaming revenue share in 2019, which was the most recent complete period of trading that was available. As a direct result of this supremacy, Macau's casinos generated close to $22 billion in revenue over the course of the year.
Further casino initiatives in APAC, including as the continuing IR projects in South Korea and across Japan, as well as the rapid market maturity currently being seen in Vietnam, Cambodia, and the Philippines, were not mentioned in the study for whatever reason. These countries include: Vietnam, Cambodia and the Philippines.
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